"THE assassination of a prominent cleric in an oil-rich Iranian province,
coinciding with violent protests in Tehran over the rationing of petrol, has
plunged President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad into his biggest crisis since he was
elected two years ago.
The murder on June 24 of Hesham Saymary in Ahvaz, the centre of Iran’s
oil-producing province in the south, was a blow to a regime that is already
under pressure because of international condemnation of its nuclear program and
the prospect of economic meltdown.
The assassination, the third of a senior
cleric this year, bore the hallmarks of a well-planned murder. According to
witnesses, the gunmen waited outside Saymary’s house for him to arrive home about 10pm.
They called out to the cleric as he was about to open his door and shot him
three times. He died instantly.
There have been other assassinations in
Iran, notably in the Kurdish area, in the west near the Iraq border, but the
Government is far more concerned about Saymary’s death because stability in the province is
crucial for its oil revenues.
Saymary was a member of the majority Arab population
of Ahvaz, the focus
of an Arabist separatist movement that follows the Wahabi sect of Islam,
linked to Osama bin
Laden.
He may have been targeted because he was a prominent supporter of the
regime. Protests that followed shortly afterwards over the rationing of petrol
convulsed Iran and its increasingly discontented citizens."
I want to note that we tend to think about the borders of countries as being solid and permanent. The middle east is a region that has historically had periods of instability where borders are changed, power has shifted. New groups forming and coming to power, as long as groups forming new alliances have been a part of these changes during former periods of dramatic change in the region. I am not suggesting this in the tone that says that they have always been violent and always will be. I think that is disregard humyn natures common history of violence and demean race of people to say they are not capable of peace.
That aside, the situation in Iraq, the problems in Lebanon and the battles among the Palestinian parties points to dramatic changes in the region. Reading this story confirms to me that the whole region is looking towards a new balance of power, new groups are coming to power and new alliances are challenging existing power structures. Former periods of unrest in the middle east have gone on for hundreds of years, and meant the redrawing of maps. I doubt that this period will be as long lasting, but I think that the middle east the emerges from it will be far different from the one we see today. That means that all the countries in the middle east will suffer upsets. From Iran to Saudi Arabia and even the more stable countries of Turkey and Egypt.
It is my belief, at least it is my hope that the new power structure is going to lean more towards western ideas of liberty and diversity.
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