Lebanon's military has been fighting Fatah al Islam for nearly three months now
and has reduce large parts of Nahr al-Bared to rubble in heavy fighting.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese have requested that the UN peacekeeping forces
(UNIFIL) stay on for another year. UNIFIL could stay on indefinitely, but unless
UNIFIL and the Lebanese start disarming Hizbullah throughout the country, the
threat of war hangs over the country. Right now, UNIFIL's mandate only permits
them to deal with Hizbullah South of the Litani River, but Hizbullah has
regrouped and swarmed the area to the North, placing its forces inside civilian
areas - knowing that if they fire on Israel, the counterbattery fire will result
in Lebanese civilian casualties.
I think it is important to think about what a terrorist food hold inside Iraq would mean for the government of Lebanon in its fight against terror. What it would mean for Israel in its fight against Hizbullah. The region is at a tipping point, where it could go either way, and Iraq is a key part of this balance.
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